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Statistics · Financial modelling

Kyungsub Lee이경섭

Professor, Department of Statistics
Yeungnam University

I use probability and statistics to understand the dynamics of financial markets, exploring the mathematical structures underlying randomness and uncertainty.

I pursue research out of personal curiosity, with the hope of contributing to better ways of advancing human understanding.

Research themes

Stochastic models & memory

Point processes, diffusions, and models of stochastic intensity and volatility. Particular interests include flexible distributions, long memory, and Markov structure.

Financial market dynamics

Models of price changes, order arrivals, and durations, connecting stochastic structures with financial market data.

Inference, computation & derivatives

Statistical inference and simulation for stochastic models, with earlier work on option pricing and hedging.

Recent publications

2026

Forecasting duration in high-frequency financial data using a self-exciting flexible residual point process

Journal of Forecasting

Article ↗ arXiv ↗
2026

Price predictability in limit order book with deep learning model

Applied Economics Letters

Article ↗ arXiv ↗
2025

Self and mutually exciting point process embedding flexible residuals and intensity with discretely Markovian dynamics

Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability

Article ↗ arXiv ↗

View all publications →

Working papers

2026

Asymmetric long-memory GARCH: sign-dependent kernel injection in a two-dimensional Markov chain

with Kennedy Titus Kayaki

Working paper

arXiv ↗
2026

Long-memory GARCH via a two-dimensional Markov chain

with Kennedy Titus Kayaki

Working paper

arXiv ↗
2026

Long-memory Markov chains with power-law intensities

Working paper

arXiv ↗